The Impact of Population Aging and Macroeconomic Leverage on Pension Fund Revenues：A Fuzzy-Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis Approach

Abstract

This study employs the fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) method to explore the impact of population aging and various macroeconomic leverage indicators on pension fund revenues in China from 2002 to 2019. Specifically, the research examines the relationships between aging demographics, central and local government leverage, household sector leverage, and the leverage of the real economy with pension fund revenues. After conducting stationarity tests on the data, fsQCA is utilized to investigate the necessary conditions of population aging and the aforementioned macroeconomic variables in relation to pension fund revenues. The findings reveal that in the context of China's rapidly aging society, and with rising levels of both population aging and central government leverage, it is critical to reduce local government debt, mitigate corporate sector liabilities, restore investor confidence, and stimulate household consumption to enhance pension fund revenues.