建筑工程全过程管理风险识别与协同控制 ——基于57个官方公开风险事件的内容分析

王维明; 孔潇楠; 贺敏

doi:10.70693/cjst.v2i5.2108

Authors

王维明金乡县金思泉水务有限公司
孔潇楠金乡县金思泉水务有限公司
贺敏金乡县金思泉水务有限公司

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.70693/cjst.v2i5.2108

Keywords:

建筑工程管理；全过程管理；风险识别；官方公开案例；敏感性分析；协同控制

Abstract

为识别建筑工程全过程关键风险及跨阶段关联，本文从30份法院、审计、事故调查和招投标监管等官方文件中拆分形成57个风险事件，构建五阶段、23类风险编码体系，并采用内容分析、探索性帕累托排序、来源去重敏感性检验、频次—影响评价和主次风险路径归纳。结果表明，施工实施与竣工验收结算阶段合计占59.7%；前11类风险累计占80.7%，但仅反映案例库内部结构。来源去重前后排序Spearman相关系数为0.950，工期失控、计价争议、工程款拖欠和结算久拖较稳定，质量缺陷排序受同源聚集影响。质量缺陷、工期失控、计价争议、工程款拖欠和安全防护不足为优先治理风险。18项盲法重复编码的阶段、主风险和影响等级Kappa分别为0.859、0.818和0.900。基于43项关联事件，提出阶段、目标、主体和信息四维协同控制框架。

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