基于改进FCFF模型的美的集团市场价值评估

黄龙成; 贺裕雁

doi:10.70693/cjst.v2i1.1835

Authors

黄龙成
贺裕雁

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.70693/cjst.v2i1.1835

Keywords:

企业价值评估；自由现金流；蒙特卡洛模拟

Abstract

本研究以数字化转型中的美的集团为案例，采用两阶段自由现金流折现（FCFF）模型进行价值评估。针对传统估值中永续期参数（增长率g与WACC）的静态局限，创新性地引入蒙特卡洛模拟进行动态分布处理，以更科学地反映其不确定性。预测期内，营业收入以剔除异常值后的历史平均增长率5.53%为基准，其他参数按与营收关联性分别采用销售百分比法或固定值预测。折现率（WACC）经测算为7.57%，其中权益资本成本采用CAPM模型计算，并考虑了转型风险溢价。研究结果显示，美的集团整体评估价值为5547.15亿元，与期末实际市值高度接近。这表明，结合蒙特卡洛模拟的FCFF模型能有效提升对数字化转型企业价值评估的准确性与稳健性，为相关领域提供了方法参考。

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